Judgments, forecasts and decisions: an analysis of fund managers over time

Decision theory is the study of models of judgement involved in, and leading to, deliberate and (usually) rational choice. In real estate investment there are normative models for the allocation of assets. These asset allocation models suggest an optimum allocation between the respective asset classes based on the investors’ judgements of performance and risk. Real estate is selected, as other assets, on the basis of some criteria, e.g. commonly its marginal contribution to the production of a mean variance efficient multi asset portfolio, subject to the investor’s objectives and capital rationing constraints. However, decisions are made relative to current expectations and current business constraints. Whilst a decision maker may believe in the required optimum exposure levels as dictated by an asset allocation model, the final decision may/will be influenced by factors outside the parameters of the mathematical model. This paper discusses investors' perceptions and attitudes toward real estate and highlights the important difference between theoretical exposure levels and pragmatic business considerations. It develops a model to identify “soft” parameters in decision making which will influence the optimal allocation for that asset class. This “soft” information may relate to behavioural issues such as the tendency to mirror competitors; a desire to meet weight of money objectives; a desire to retain the status quo and many other non-financial considerations. The paper aims to establish the place of property in multi asset portfolios in the UK and examine the asset allocation process in practice, with a view to understanding the decision making process and to look at investors’ perceptions based on an historic analysis of market expectation; a comparison with historic data and an analysis of actual performance.

Healing the wounds of war: memories of violence and the making of history in Zimbabwe's most recent past.

How does a society less than two decades after a liberation war which involved large sections of the population come to terms with the memories of violence and war — a war in which there was no clear distinction between insurgent and counter‐insurgent, liberator and oppressor and in which the majority of the casualties can be found among the rural civilian population? This was a predicament not exclusive to Zimbabwe, but one which also applies to Mozambique, South Africa and, more recently, to Rwanda. Since its independence Zimbabwe has been a prime example of successful reconciliation. Ranger has argued that spiritual healing has contributed importantly to coming to terms with the trauma of war through turning violence into history. Here it will be argued that an analysis of the intersections between memories of violence, healing, and history reveals a twofold process. Social healing is made possible by a shift from conviction and compensation to revealing without convicting. At the same time healing provides an arena for communities in which competing and contesting memories of violence are renegotiated. Through these processes sense is being made of the past; history is being made.

Synthesis and NMR spectroscopic analysis of 3-nitro-pyranoside, 3-nitro-septanoside and 4-nitro-septanoside derivatives by condensation of the anion of nitromethane with glycoside

The utility of the nitroaldol reaction for accessing 3-nitro-pyranoside, 3-nitro-septanoside or 4-nitro-septanoside derivatives, by reaction of the anion of nitromethane with glycoside dialdehydes is demonstrated. Initially, the feasibility of using unprotected glucoside dialdehydes was probed for the synthesis of the septanoside products, but this affoided pyranoside rather than septanoside targets. Subsequent studies utilised protected glycoside dialdehydes within the methodology, which allowed entry into a range of 3-nitro or 4-nitro-septanosides in good yield NMR spectroscopic analysis allowed determination of the stereochemistry of each of the products thus afforded.

Genetic parameters and evaluations from single- and multiple-trait analysis of dairy cow fertility and milk production

Genetic parameters and breeding values for dairy cow fertility were estimated from 62 443 lactation records. Two-trait analysis of fertility and milk yield was investigated as a method to estimate fertility breeding values when culling or selection based on milk yield in early lactation determines presence or absence of fertility observations in later lactations. Fertility traits were calving interval, intervals from calving to first service, calving to conception and first to last service, conception success to first service and number of services per conception. Milk production traits were 305-day milk, fat and protein yield. For fertility traits, range of estimates of heritability (h(2)) was 0.012 to 0.028 and of permanent environmental variance (c(2)) was 0.016 to 0.032. Genetic correlations (r(g)) among fertility traits were generally high ( > 0.70). Genetic correlations of fertility with milk production traits were unfavourable (range -0.11 to 0.46). Single and two-trait analyses of fertility were compared using the same data set. The estimates of h(2) and c(2) were similar for two types of analyses. However, there were differences between estimated breeding values and rankings for the same trait from single versus multi-trait analyses. The range for rank correlation was 0.69-0.83 for all animals in the pedigree and 0.89-0.96 for sires with more than 25 daughters. As single-trait method is biased due to selection on milk yield, a multi-trait evaluation of fertility with milk yield is recommended. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Rapid acidification and alkylation: Redox analysis of the MHC class I pathway

The technique of rapid acidification and alkylation can be used to characterise the redox status of oxidoreductases, and to determine numbers of free cysteine residues within substrate proteins. We have previously used this method to analyse interacting components of the MHC class I pathway, namely ERp57 and tapasin. Here, we have applied rapid acidification alkylation as a novel approach to analysing the redox status of MHC class I molecules. This analysis of the redox status of the MHC class I molecules HLA-A2 and HLA-B27, which is strongly associated with a group of inflammatory arthritic disorders referred to as Spondyloarthropathies, revealed structural and conformational information. We propose that this assay provides a useful tool in the study of in vivo MHC class I structure. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Combined affinity labelling and mass spectrometry analysis of differential cell surface protein expression in normal and prostate cancer cells

Differences in the expression of cell surface proteins between a normal prostate epithelial (1542-NP2TX) and a prostate cancer cell line (1542-CP3TX) derived from the same patient were investigated. A combination of affinity chromatographic purification of biotin-tagged surface proteins with mass spectrometry analysis identified 26 integral membrane proteins and 14 peripheral surface proteins. The findings confirm earlier reports of altered expression in prostate cancer for several cell surface proteins, including ALCAM/CD166, the Ephrin type A receptor, EGFR and the prostaglandin F2 receptor regulatory protein. In addition, several novel findings of differential expression were made, including the voltage-dependent anion selective channel proteins Porin 1 and 2, ecto-5'-nucleotidase (CD73) and Scavenger receptor B1. Cell surface protein expression changed both qualitatively and quantitatively when the cells were grown in the presence of either or both interferon INFalpha and INFgamma. Costimulation with type I and II interferons had additive or synergistic effects on the membrane density of several, mainly peripherally attached surface proteins. Concerted upregulation of surface exposed antigens may be of benefit in immuno-adjuvant-based treatment of interferon-responsive prostate cancer. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that differences in the expression of membrane proteins between normal and prostate cancer cells are reproducibly detectable following vectorial labelling with biotin, and that detailed analysis of extracellular-induced surface changes can be achieved by combining surface-specific labelling with high-resolution two-dimensional gel electrophoresis and mass spectrometry.

Rapid parallel expression in E-coli and insect cells: Analysis of five lef gene products of the Autographa californica multiple nuclear polyhedrosis virus (AcMNPV)

A number of strategies are emerging for the high throughput (HTP) expression of recombinant proteins to enable structural and functional study. Here we describe a workable HTP strategy based on parallel protein expression in E. coli and insect cells. Using this system we provide comparative expression data for five proteins derived from the Autographa californica polyhedrosis virus genome that vary in amino acid composition and in molecular weight. Although the proteins are part of a set of factors known to be required for viral late gene expression, the precise function of three of the five, late expression factors (lefs) 6, 7 and 10, is unknown. Rapid expression and characterisation has allowed the determination of their ability to bind DNA and shown a cellular location consistent with their properties. Our data point to the utility of a parallel expression strategy to rapidly obtain workable protein expression levels from many open reading frames (ORFs).

Identification of lipophilic flavones and flavonols by comparative HPLC, TLC and UV spectral analysis

The identification of lipophilic flavones and flavonols using a combination of high performance liquid chromatography, thin layer chromatography and UV spectral analysis is discussed. Data are provided for the flavones, apigenin, luteolin and tricetin and twelve of their methyl ethers, 8-hydroxyluteolin, 6-hydroxyluteolin and scutellarein and fourteen of their methyl ethers, and some 6,8-dihydroxyapigenin and 6,8-dihydroxyluteolin derivatives. Data for some forty two flavonols with extra 6- and/or 8-hydroxylation, mostly 6-hydroxykaempferol and quercetagetin derivatives, are also presented. The remaining compounds analysed include fourteen 5-deoxyflavones, four 5-methoxyflavones and five 5-deoxyflavonols plus further 5-hydroxylated flavones and flavonols without B-ring oxidation or with 2-, 5- or 6-hydroxylation. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Combined affinity labelling and mass spectrometry analysis of differential cell surface protein expression in normal and prostate cancer cells

Differences in the expression of cell surface proteins between a normal prostate epithelial (1542-NP2TX) and a prostate cancer cell line (1542-CP3TX) derived from the same patient were investigated. A combination of affinity chromatographic purification of biotin-tagged surface proteins with mass spectrometry analysis identified 26 integral membrane proteins and 14 peripheral surface proteins. The findings confirm earlier reports of altered expression in prostate cancer for several cell surface proteins, including ALCAM/CD166, the Ephrin type A receptor, EGFR and the prostaglandin F2 receptor regulatory protein. In addition, several novel findings of differential expression were made, including the voltage-dependent anion selective channel proteins Porin 1 and 2, ecto-5'-nucleotidase (CD73) and Scavenger receptor B1. Cell surface protein expression changed both qualitatively and quantitatively when the cells were grown in the presence of either or both interferon INF alpha and INF gamma. Costimulation with type I and II interferons had additive or synergistic effects on the membrane density of several, mainly peripherally attached surface proteins. Concerted upregulation of surface exposed antigens may be of benefit in immuno-adjuvant-based treatment of interferon-responsive prostate cancer. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that differences in the expression of membrane proteins between normal and prostate cancer cells are reproducibly detectable following vectorial labelling with biotin, and that detailed analysis of extracellular-induced surface changes can be achieved by combining surface-specific labelling with high-resolution two-dimensional gel electrophoresis and mass spectrometry.

Potential energy surface and MULTIMODE vibrational analysis of C2H3+

A full dimensional, ab initio-based semiglobal potential energy surface for C2H3+ is reported. The ab initio electronic energies for this molecule are calculated using the spin-restricted, coupled cluster method restricted to single and double excitations with triples corrections [RCCSD(T)]. The RCCSD(T) method is used with the correlation-consistent polarized valence triple-zeta basis augmented with diffuse functions (aug-cc-pVTZ). The ab initio potential energy surface is represented by a many-body (cluster) expansion, each term of which uses functions that are fully invariant under permutations of like nuclei. The fitted potential energy surface is validated by comparing normal mode frequencies at the global minimum and secondary minimum with previous and new direct ab initio frequencies. The potential surface is used in vibrational analysis using the "single-reference" and "reaction-path" versions of the code MULTIMODE. (c) 2006 American Institute of Physics.

A system's model for maintenance support and decision making in building services systems

Modern buildings are designed to enhance the match between environment, spaces and the people carrying out work, so that the well-being and the performance of the occupants are all in harmony. Building services are systems that facilitate a healthy working environment within which workers productivity can be optimised in the buildings. However, the maintenance of these services is fraught with problems that may contribute to up to 50% of the total life cycle cost of the building. Maintenance support is one area which is not usually designed into the system as this is not common practice in the services industry. The other areas of shortfall for future designs are; client requirements, commissioning, facilities management data and post occupancy evaluation feedback which needs to be adequately planned to capture and document this information for use in future designs. At the University of Reading an integrated approach has been developed to assemble the multitude of aspects inherent in this field. The means records required and measured achievements for the benefit of both building owners and practitioners. This integrated approach can be represented in a Through Life Business Model (TLBM) format using the concept of Integrated Logistic Support (ILS). The prototype TLBM developed utilises the tailored tools and techniques of ILS for building services. This TLBM approach will facilitate the successful development of a databank that would be invaluable in capturing essential data (e.g. reliability of components) for enhancing future building services designs, life cycle costing and decision making by practitioners, in particular facilities managers.